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Military Survey on Tensions in Ukraine

Tensions between Russia and Ukraine are dominating global headlines. Russian troops continue to flock to the Ukrainian border, and as a conflict looms, the United States has many important military and geopolitical decisions to make.

We surveyed 1,504 U.S. service members to get their perspective on the crisis. We asked for insight on how the Biden administration has handled the developing tensions, whether or not a Russian invasion of Ukraine is likely to take place, and whether or not President Biden is capable of handling a full-fledged conflict in the region.

79% Say Biden Hasn't Done Enough to Deter Russian Invasion

We asked 1,504 U.S. service members...

Has President Biden done enough to deter a potential Russian invasion of Ukraine?

During our polling, we found that over 91% of respondents believed President Biden's foreign policy initiatives were ineffective in mitigating international conflicts, with 73.36% answering that the president's policies have been "completely ineffective." Regarding a potential Russian invasion of Ukraine, 79% of respondents felt that Biden hasn't done enough to deter an invasion. Just 4% believe the president has done enough to deter an invasion.

Over 60% Think a Russian Invasion of Ukraine is Likely

We asked 1,504 U.S. service members...

How likely is it that Russia invades Ukraine?

Over 60% felt that Russia will invade Ukraine, with around 38% choosing "likely," and about 28% choosing "very likely." We also asked whether or not the United States should assist Ukraine in the event that Russia launches an invasion. 45.5% of our respondents indicated that the U.S. should assist by sending supplies to Ukraine, while around 29% said the U.S. should send both supplies and U.S. troops.

Over 73% Are "Very Unconfident" in Joe Biden's Ability to Handle a Military Conflict with Russia

We asked 1,504 U.S. service members...

How confident are you in President Biden's ability to handle a potential boots-on-the-ground military conflict with Russia in Eastern Europe?

The overwhelming majority (nearly 86%) lack confidence in President Biden's ability to handle a boots-on-the-ground conflict with Russia, with over 73% of respondents choosing "very unconfident." Only 7.8% indicated that they had any confidence at all in the president's ability to handle such a conflict.

And although confidence in Biden's ability to handle a conflict with Russia in Eastern Europe is low, close to 61% of respondents believe the United States would deploy troops to the region in the event that Russia invades Ukraine.

Methodology

In total, 1,776 individuals took part in the survey. Of those, 272 selected that they have not served in the United States Armed Forces; their results were excluded from the data. The survey questions we analyzed were:

  • Do (or did) you serve in the United States Armed Forces? If so, which branch?

  • How effective have President Biden's foreign policy initiatives been in addressing and mitigating international conflicts?

  • Has President Biden done enough to deter a potential Russian invasion of Ukraine?

  • How likely is it that Russia invades Ukraine?

  • If Russia invades Ukraine, should the United States assist Ukraine?

  • What do you think the likelihood is of an armed conflict between Russia and the United States?

  • If Russia invades Ukraine, how likely is it that the United States will deploy troops to the region?

  • How confident are you in President Biden's ability to handle a potential boots-on-the-ground military conflict with Russia in Eastern Europe?

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